Dubai Residential Real Estate Market Snapshot July 2023

Dubai's Residential Real Estate: A Comprehensive Analysis

Introduction: Dubai, the crown jewel of the UAE, has always been at the forefront regarding luxury residential real estate. Over the years, it has attracted global attention for its architectural wonders and state-of-the-art residences. Recent statistics from June 2023 have further underscored the emirate's enduring appeal, indicating robust growth in various segments of its residential market.

Growth and Transactions Volume: As of June 2023, Dubai's residential market saw a flurry of activity, marked by a notable 18.8% uptick in transaction volume, amounting to 9,876 compared to the previous year. This figure isn't just a standalone monthly achievement. When zooming out and examining the bigger picture, the year leading up to June 2023 witnessed an impressive total of 57,737 residential transactions. In perspective, these numbers for the first two quarters alone surpassed any other first-half yearly data on record.

Off-Plan vs. Secondary Market Transactions: Delving deeper into the nature of these transactions provides even more intriguing insights. Off-plan transactions, or properties bought directly from developers before construction completion, witnessed a whopping growth of 44.9%. In stark contrast, secondary market transactions, which entail properties resold after being handed over by developers, saw a marginal dip of 0.5%. This showcases a rising trend among buyers increasingly leaning toward newly developed properties or those still under construction.

Pricing Dynamics: The cost factor in Dubai's real estate, especially in the residential sector, has always been a subject of much discussion. In the year culminating in June 2023, average housing prices in Dubai registered the most robust growth since late 2014, escalating by 16.9%. This was a jump from the 15.9% growth observed just a month before. A closer look at the category-wise price rise reveals that average apartment prices surged by 17.2%, clocking in at AED 1,294 per square foot. Concurrently, villa prices rose by 15.1%, averaging AED 1,525 per square foot.

Despite such growth, it's essential to understand the historicEven rates, even after the recent apartment sale rates t increase, are still 13.1% lower than in 2014. Villas, conversely, seem to have outperformed their records, with current sale rates sitting 5.5% higher than their 2014 peak.

Luxury Market Performance: Dubai, renowned for its luxury and opulence, naturally demands a closer look at its premier property locales. Downtown Dubai emerged as the frontrunner in apartments, commanding the highest sales rate of AED 2,440 per square foot. Meanwhile, the iconic Palm Jumeirah led the charts in the villa category, with villas fetching an astounding AED 4,845 per square foot.

Rental Market Overview: For many, buying is only sometimes the immediate option. The rental market in Dubai is vast, accommodating both locals and an enormous expatriate population. In June 2023, average rental rates witnessed a 22.8% year-on-year increment, slightly decelerating from the 24.2% surge the previous month. Breaking down these figures further, apartments and villas are nearly neck-to-neck in their rental growth, with the former seeing a 22.7% hike and the latter a 23.1% rise.

Palm Jumeirah, beyond its villa sale supremacy, also ruled the apartment rental domain with an average annual rent of AED 258,335. On the villa front, Al Barari emerged as the most premium location, where yearly annual rents soared to an eye-watering AED 1,042,931.

Conclusion: June 2023 has painted a picture of a vibrant, evolving, and resilient Dubai residential real estate market. With record-breaking transaction numbers, steady growth across property types, and a thriving rental market, Dubai's real estate landscape promises opportunities for investors, homeowners, and tenants alike.

City Manager Spencer Cronk has asked City Council to decide four fundamental policy questions before staff resumes work on the land development code. Cronk did the right thing by putting these questions to Council. They are intensely political questions about the future growth of the city. They cannot be settled by staff. The CodeNext process floundered mostly because staff was tasked with trying to resolve deep political disagreements through a technocratic code-writing process. Staff produced a code that displeased virtually every faction in the city. But staff’s job should have been to implement policy, not to formulate it. It is past time for Council to settle these questions.

Cronk requests Council’s guidance on four topics: housing capacity, missing middle housing, compatibility regulations, and parking. The memo lays out the competing policy concerns presented by each topic. Then it suggests that Council choose one of three options. The menu for each topic is the same. The first option is to maintain the status quo. The second is to adopt the approach of the last CodeNext draft. And the third is to make a more dramatic change. There are long appendices that provide context for each option.

The memo also asks Council to decide whether to adopt the text of the code and map concurrently or instead to adopt the text first and delay its effective date until the map is approved. (The memo points out that Council could choose to amend the code rather than adopt a completely new code, but staff recommends against that and I hope Council doesn’t seriously consider it.)

We should adopt the map and text at the same time. We won’t be able to tell whether our goals are being achieved without having both. This is staff’s recommendation. The complication with adopting them concurrently is that staff has been unwilling to apply the new code to much of the city without detailed planning. The last map accordingly left much of the city to be governed by current code—mostly areas with their own overlays, such as PUDs, the University Neighborhood Overlay and Neighborhood Conservation Combining Districts such as Hyde Park. Council has three options here, although the memo doesn’t spell them out as clearly as the others: it can give staff a free hand to maintain current zoning wherever it deems appropriate; it can direct staff to apply the new zoning everywhere; or it can direct staff to apply the new zoning to some types of areas but not others. For example, Council could direct that the new base zoning be applied to NCCDs (which already have a base zoning) but not to PUDs (which usually do not).

Council ultimately needs to resolve this and the other issues. Thanks to Cronk's memo, these issues are now, finally, teed up for decision.