The McMansion ordinance will drive families from central Austin.
It's common sense that large families tend to prefer large houses. At least those are the houses they buy. Just look at the "family-friendly" suburbs: Between 2000 and 2006, the average new home in Circle C had 3,965 square feet; the average new home in Steiner Ranch, 3,915 square feet; and the average new home in the Great Hills subdivision, 4,065 square feet. (Download NPA_Comparative_Data.pdf, compiled by the city demographer.)
Although I've got only one child, I understand this preference. Space per capita matters; it determines how much you can spread out. A childless couple in a 1,600 square foot house has exactly the same amount of space per capita as a couple and two children in a 3,200 square foot house.
Give the family of four a choice between a 1,600 square foot house in Bouldin and a 3,200 square foot house in Circle C and see which it picks. Circle C, more likely than not. The family that prefers space will choose Circle C even if it wants to be close to Zilker Park and downtown Austin. It will choose Circle C even if that means a long commute. And it will choose Circle C even if it is the 1,600 square foot house that has the bigger yard.
If central Austin is to attract lots of families, it must have plenty of affordable large homes.
The McMansion ordinance, of course, takes dead aim at "large" houses --anything bigger than the ordinance's paltry 2,300 square foot minimum. It drastically cuts the number of places to build large homes, strangling supply. The inexorable laws of supply and demand dictate skyrocketing prices.
It looks like prices already have reached the stratosphere. On September 17, 2006, there were exactly three 2,500+ square-foot homes in central Austin listed on the Multiple Listing Service for $300,000 or less. (Central Austin is more or less equivalent to MLS areas 1A, 1B, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7.) I chose $300,000 because that is roughly the price a household making $100,000 can afford. A $100,000-a-year family is hardly poor, of course; according to 2004 census figures, 80% of the metropolitan households make $100,000 or less. The "interim moratorium" -- McMansion's precursor -- is just a few months old, and central Austin already has been put out of reach for most large families.
Central Austin, with its inventory of bungalows and cottages, will soon be inhospitable to all but the wealthiest families. Average families will spurn it, abandoning it to the hip singles, childless couples and empty nesters. There's certainly nothing wrong with being any of these. It is incomprehensible to me, though, that the City Council doesn't think large families deserve a place in central Austin too. I know -- the City Council does not mean to drive families out of central Austin. But it should be judged by the utterly predictable consequences of its actions. The City Council could not have adopted an ordinance more hostile to large families if it had tried.
